Market Overview: FTSE 100 Futures
FTSE 100 futures went increased final week, reversing the week earlier than. Two legs down after a really sturdy breakout. The bears desire a third leg, however with the every day chart going all the time in lengthy, it might be higher to be lengthy or flat subsequent week. It could possibly go sideways, however I feel the promoting was profit-taking slightly than swing bears.
FTSE 100 Futures
The Weekly FTSE chart
- The FTSE 100 futures went increased final week, with a bull bar closing close to its excessive and a small tail.
- Some merchants see the micro double backside and the 2-bar reversal with the week earlier than.
- The bulls see a breakout and follow-through, and now they’ve two legs sideways to down—a Excessive 2. It is a basic setup for getting lengthy in a development.
- The bears argue for a parabolic wedge high, 3 – 4 legs up, and now they need two legs proportionate to the sample.
- However they would wish to incorporate legs from BOM – which I feel doesn’t depend. In case you have a look at March / April as the beginning of leg one, then leg 2 was the sturdy breakout. So anticipate two legs sideways to down earlier than a last leg up.
- The counter-argument is that when it’s unclear, merchants will have a look at the buying and selling vary behaviour to persist.
- A 50% pullback after a bull spike is a purchase setup, and merchants will search for the market to cease taking place and attempt to get lengthy.
- Most bears ought to exit after a Excessive 2.
- It was a big-small-big sample and merchants anticipated a pullback after which development resumption.
- They’ll argue 5 bars down is robust, so they need to get a second leg / bar sideways to down. And so they in all probability will, however with a tail under.
- Nevertheless it’s harmful to promote right here above a powerful bull bar and a weak promote under it. The MA and BOP are there. So, I’d be shocked if all of the restrict order merchants get crammed.
- Open gaps are an indication of breakout / trending behaviour, and you need to not often commerce in opposition to the aspect of the gaps.
- Some merchants will argue that we ought to be always-in brief, however in my guidelines, we didn’t break any swing factors of the bulls, so we’re both all the time lengthy or sideways in a bull channel.
- Count on sideways to up subsequent week.
The Every day FTSE chart
- The FTSE 100 futures went down briefly on Friday with a bear doji.
- It’s the fifth higher-high on this tight channel which crossed the MA.
- It was a 4-bar bull microchannel, which obtained damaged on Friday and located consumers under, not sellers. Thats an issue for bears.
- It was three legs down, and final week, the within bar, which was the beginning of leg 3, simply had a breakout above it and a pullback check. That is one other downside for bears.
- So, a wedge backside after a HTF bull breakout means development resumption is coming quickly.
- 5 – 6 bars up, so we would go sideways round right here.
- It’s a weak purchase above the bear outdoors bar, which additionally obtained a bear breakout under.
- Nonetheless, some computer systems will see the shut above the midpoint as a bull bar, making it a greater purchase/purchase under than a powerful promote.
- Bears will argue their first leg was so sturdy they want one other leg for symmetry. However with two sturdy failed breakouts under the lows the perfect they get now’s a buying and selling vary.
- Perhaps sellers above the second leg. However they’ll should be fast to exit and now scale into that commerce, I feel. As a result of a measured transfer up is the highs of the vary.
- I feel we flipped again to all the time being in lengthy now—wedge backside and bull microchannel—so it is going to seemingly escape and want a second leg sideways to up.
- Bears should not have time on their aspect in order that they would wish consecutive bear bars subsequent week closing under the MA to alter my view.
- At all times in lengthy, so anticipate sideways to up subsequent week.
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